Social Change is happening to you, with you or because of you? Coronavirus and Black Lives Matter

— Think on this in terms of effecting proper social change when being party to any form of discrimination on whatever grounds.

How do we use our energy, mental and physical, as individuals and collectively, to impact the system?

How do we change the nature of pressure and how it is controlled or influenced by us within the spirals and networks of our community and society?

From a generation who took part in events leading up to the 1976 Rock against Racism in the UK, I found, in my formative years, how the crowd think happens. Well ahead of today’s social media, crowds could, would, create, actions and reactions with individuals. The amplification of a message was not on the scale of today. But it was there. The science of mass messaging, manipulation, has continued to improve. We are more aware of how we work as individuals and collectives; however defined. How messaging, nudges, are used, and regularly, abused by those controlling messaging. We still struggle to control because of the innate elements deep within ourselves. The George Floyd murder has brought forward analysis of how US politicians are already sliding to the extremes, using the changes of flow dynamics to manipulate perceptions of risk and ‘solution’ — constraining to increase actions and create reactions. The classic extremes where the centre, the majority of people, are being pushed at different speeds under different pressures and rarely for the majority’s betterment.

In 1963, President Kennedy and, then, Vice President Johnson were mindful of those who lived ‘on the outskirts of hope’ and in ‘inherited, gateless poverty’; no escape, subject to the pressures and pace set by extremes. Horace Busby, an ideas person in the Kennedy and Johnson Administrations, told Johnson ‘America’s real majority is suffering a minority complex of neglect……feel forgotten, at the second table behind tightly organized, smaller groups at either end of the US spectrum’. The issue remains, the flow will not change unless pressure, speed or volume changes. The fundamental question is who controls the pressure and speed to impact the social volume seeking what directional change? — when you have time, read on — https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/06/04/far-worse-than-nixon

Nature is not linear — so why is our thinking along predictable lines? Why are we not challenging business as usual? As Kennedy, Johnson and Roy Jenkins in the UK, challenged institutional norms with ingrained prejudices and subjugation of different people?

We have all been inundated by parabolas and bell-shaped graphs to explain to us how the virus is spreading and will recede. How we can ‘flatten the curve’. Up and over the bell curve, travelling like a rollercoaster, through the hurl inducing parabola. Wondering if there is going to be a corkscrew next in the coronavirus tale of first wave, possible second wave? Is the corkscrew the killing of George Floyd, bringing a long standing set of grievances and injustices to the fore at a time when people were more open to acknowledging their own innate beliefs and values and much more willing to take action to seek positive change?

We are witnessing a very strong movement in Black Lives Matter. It is possibly of great interest where this is not happening as much as where it is. A matter of relative pressures in terms of what is a priority? Yes, social media maps show re-postings but, say, go to South Africa and the priority remains keeping body and soul together, social justice remains an aspiration two decades after Nelson Mandela personified the first major shift to responsible, accountable, leadership. Two steps forward, one, or three, steps back? The path is not linear for certain.

How about taking a fresh look at the manner we think about all these posts experts are putting out? The social media responses and elaborations of what is important as an individual. A nuclear family. A household with multiple generations and possibly people we have given shelter. A community. A society. Changing where we stand in our physically confined spaces refines the manner we will see social considerations, changes the way we make sense of things.

Three thinkers from different ages provided progressions showing how order is there, to be explained by mathematics, but not necessarily along straight lines.

Bernoulli provided thinking, used to this day, applying mathematics to economics as well as physics. His work on risk aversion, something much talked around regarding how different people, societies, age groups, have acted and reacted to coronavirus. How some have picked up on the George Floyd murder and defied authorities making protestations as risks were weighed against pressures felt.

Risk aversion (red) contrasted to risk neutrality (yellow) and risk loving (orange) in different settings. Left graph: A risk averse utility function is concave (from below), while a risk loving utility function is convex. Middle graph: In standard deviation-expected value space, risk averse indifference curves are upward sloped. Right graph: With fixed probabilities of two alternative states 1 and 2, risk averse indifference curves over pairs of state-contingent outcomes are convex — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_aversion

Some may ask — Who loves risk? Many older people active on social media enjoy a good whinge about younger generations gathering together as the various coronavirus lockdowns are eased in terms of rules and regulations and the manner of enforcing is construed in different ways. The gatherings to show solidarity with the murder of George Floyd are reflective of relative risks and considerations in people’s lives.

There is a growing body of knowledge looking at people who take (growing) risks in their leisure and seek an edge, Edgework, for the fun of it — ‘Edgework involves skilful practices combined with emotional intensity’ https://simplysociology.wordpress.com/2012/05/30/edgework-taking-risks-for-the-fun-of-it/. Certainly the emotional intensity is evident with the wave of protests and skills are becoming apparent as action and reaction happen to cause change.

Bernoulli’s time did see epidemics; he knew of pandemics and plagues. Knowledge of how we work subconsciously in terms of weighing factors is growing. Whether to go to the park with mates, or march with complete strangers united by different perspectives of why to protest the killing of yet another person oppressed by creed, colour, ethnicity, religion. Beleaguered by lack of opportunity caused by how those who control pressures and societal flows manipulate the different influences, risks and pressures.

Bernoulli’s Principle is on fluid dynamics. As the speed of the fluid increases, pressure decreases. A higher pressure pushes fluid toward lower pressure. Any change in a fluid’s speed will be matched by a change in pressure.

Read this again and then think Dominic Cummings — https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/29/dominic-cummings-coronavirus-wife-castle-petition/ and Ian Blackstone — https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18478298.coronavirus-ian-blackford-isolated-600-mile-trip-skye-home-lockdown/ — The word pressure appears as politicians sought to reduce pressure but did not add enough speed, were grounded and now are so full of c#£p, with little, if any, contrition. Do these individuals really care for most people? The tens of millions of us consigned to being Plebeiansand, if we are lucky, the professional and technical levels?

‘The choice for mankind lies between freedom and happiness

and for the great bulk of mankind, happiness is better’ Orwell

But many have never had the choice of freedom. Think on what has happened for generations to those who have felt oppressed — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8jUA7JBkF4. Pressure has risen as most of us were obeying social dynamics of Bernoulli style application on risk placing us under pressure because of how the impact of coronavirus was portrayed. Nowhere to change speed. No time to vent. No wonder we are all feeling it. Whatever ‘it’ is in your life? We all want to get back out to lower pressure as risk perspectives change consciously and subconsciously. We are making decisions in different ways. Whether we realise this is another thing.

Fibonacci provides us with enthralling mathematical modelling for allusions to coronavirus and offering insights to messaging; the spread and the opportunity to take a fresh perspective in looking at endless bell curves. The need to look again at the effects of how we work as individuals within social systems.

Fibonacci provided the mathematics where the sum of the last two numbers becomes the next number in the series 1+1=2, 2+1=3, 3+2=5, 5+3=8….. A spiral generation increasing in a predictable, curved development.

A virus emerges and grows exponentially — is this the case for us to re-examine how we act and react with regard to BLM and racism connotations? Is the virus of racism in us?

Not as graphic as the Fibonacci spiral. Definitely faster if the multiplier is large enough. The R rate now known by many with coronavirus is possibly there for us to look again at how we have allowed institutional racism remain insidiously in our midst. This BBC piece explains nicely — https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52473523 and, interestingly, refers back to the risk curves as people are reassured the reproduction is going down to a point where control is perceived. Controlled risk.

• Are we perpetuating a virus of racism? Institutional ethnic profiling? Religious bigotry?

But the spiral outward is far more relevant here, as we also witness, take part in, other cumulative actions. Referring back to the Rock Against Racism — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rock_Against_Racism — https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/apr/30/echoes-of-todays-uk-revealed-in-rock-against-racisms-1970s-struggle (I was kind of there having been with a crew through the previous 12 hours experiencing stereotyping on racial grounds for my learning to create another piece of erudition) — we were seeing how messaging was used to create cliques within broader groupings. There were the singular numbers who had shown how they could, would, and did, create antipathy, hate, as police were not seen as ‘civilians in uniform’ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/covid-19-ex-supreme-court-judge-lambasts-disgraceful-policing but implementors of power over the masses. The reference is from Lord Sumption 30 March 2020, the same problems were apparent in the 1970s with the manner police were used in the miners’ strikes and subsequently acted in the Rock Against Racism lead up. The SUS law in action where many of us were stopped simply on suspicion. Maybe slightly more ‘civilised’ than the cavalry charge of the Peterlee Massacre — http://www.peterloomassacre.org/history.html — the principles there. The manner actions gain momentum in a social context spirals away from the control of the originator. 1+1=2, less than 20 steps and we are in the tens of thousands

An idea originates, the originators can predict the growth of the spiral. But not the actions and reactions within a social spiral of influence. It is not as neat as the Fibonacci sequence, the reality now is networks of influencers. Repeated by others, we have the network effect Barabasi made known to many — https://barabasi.com .

We now witness the capability to not just understand the multiplier effect but seek to control it. To an extent. What we have witnessed in 2020 is the coming together of factors, long term grievances and oppressions fitting with the cumulative nature of abuse of our Earth.

We have become greater consumers than producers. A truism in many respects; but one requiring a little extra spiral and network thinking. As the first industrial revolution took place, we became the necessary tools to make mass production possible. There were more of us producing than consuming; it is the basis of exploitation of race creed and ethnicity we experience to this day. Sadly.

The nature of the product has clearly changed — with all the gadgets we have, the control of the spiral has changed. How networks develop, evolve or take major shifts has developed exponentially and taken massive shifts to other sequences of mathematical growth along totally different lines. We, as people, are not (yet) all connected to each other. But the spirals have radiated outward and the networks are such the originators do not control how others take, manipulate and exploit the original 1+1.

We have issues with confidence. We do need some linearity as confidence is generated, reinforced, by results and achieving impact. We need to be able to triangulate what we see, hear and feel as we imbibe news. But how we judge results requires some fresh thinking from the natural world:-

About how we see, hear and sense results from being locked down for coronavirus suppression and rise up collectively to make Black Lives Matter. Cause action against institutional bigotry and structural discrimination.

Taleb’s work regarding looking at how long something has been around to see how long it will be around is naïve to say the least — http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190624-how-to-think-about-the-far-future. What is apparent are how matters spiral from the control of the originators and regularly are repeats of events from previous times.

• As we have improved our ability to disseminate, developing swiftly through Fibonacci’s spiral into Barabasi’s networks, we have also lost the depth of engagement. Protests become repeats. Possibly, probably, not impacting the originators of the causes of the protestations nor being more than an irritation to those we protest against.
• Through networks and control of the spirals, those in power remain in power.
• For all the frenzied activity in the outer spirals, without knowing how the networks are used to diffuse protests and centralise power, we will be indulging in entropy; the dissipation of energy without impacting the cause; the overall state of the system.
• Think on this in terms of how to prevent the next pandemic and how to effect proper social change when looking at any form of discrimination on whatever grounds.
• How do we use our energy, mental and physical, as individuals and collectively, to impact the system?
• How do we change the nature of pressure and how it is controlled or influenced by us within the spirals and networks of our community and society?